vriforecastingThis report provides the forecast of 1-week ahead confirmed cases for
the 4 prevalent respiratory viral cases in BC (Flu-A, Flu-B, RSV and
SAR-CoV2). Forecast reports were generated using both the
weekly-aggregated data population (PLOVER) and the weekly-aggregated
pediatric only population data (PHRDW). vriforecasting uses
EpiEstim as the backend to forecast weekly confirmed cases,
which forecasts cases using the time varying instantaneous reproduction
number during the epidemic. The report is divided into two sections:
1-week forecast for the current season of respiratory cases as well as
validation plots and metrics for the performance of the forecasting
model on historical data to help in the assessment of model
performance.
This section presents the 1-week ahead model forecast for the current season for both PHRDW and PLOVER data. The 1-week ahead forecasted confirmed cases is reported with the 95% and 50% percentile interval. The last estimated reproduction number is also reported with the 95% confidence interval.
The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 199 [95-percentile prediction interval: (152,254)]
The last estimated Rt value is 0.8931229 (0.0550723)
The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 49 [95-percentile prediction interval: (26.975,74)]
The last estimated Rt value is 1.0034078 (0.1405052)
The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 138 [95-percentile prediction interval: (114,165)]
The last estimated Rt value is 0.734297 (0.0534122)
The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 44 [95-percentile prediction interval: (19,80)]
The last estimated Rt value is 0.9533717 (0.1309557)
The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 1 [95-percentile prediction interval: (0,6)]
The last estimated Rt value is 0.3859038 (0.1286346)
The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 4 [95-percentile prediction interval: (0,12)]
The last estimated Rt value is 0.3977284 (0.3977284)
The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 4 [95-percentile prediction interval: (1,8)]
The last estimated Rt value is 0.2956084 (0.0853348)
The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 4 [95-percentile prediction interval: (0,25.025)]
The last estimated Rt value is 0.8529125 (0.6031002)
The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 148.323954
The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 38.0690011
The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 105.0823109
The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 115.0000203
The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 45.4153844
The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 21.3975967
The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 40.4266686
The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 72.1003548