Description:

This report provides the forecast of 1-week ahead confirmed cases for the 4 prevalent respiratory viral cases in BC (Flu-A, Flu-B, RSV and SAR-CoV2). Forecast reports were generated using both the weekly-aggregated data population (PLOVER) and the weekly-aggregated pediatric only population data (PHRDW). vriforecasting uses EpiEstim as the backend to forecast weekly confirmed cases, which forecasts cases using the time varying instantaneous reproduction number during the epidemic. The report is divided into two sections: 1-week forecast for the current season of respiratory cases as well as validation plots and metrics for the performance of the forecasting model on historical data to help in the assessment of model performance.

Current season forecast

Description

This section presents the 1-week ahead model forecast for the current season for both PHRDW and PLOVER data. The 1-week ahead forecasted confirmed cases is reported with the 95% and 50% percentile interval. The last estimated reproduction number is also reported with the 95% confidence interval.

PLOVER

Flu A

The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 199 [95-percentile prediction interval: (152,254)]

The last estimated Rt value is 0.8931229 (0.0550723)

Flu B

The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 49 [95-percentile prediction interval: (26.975,74)]

The last estimated Rt value is 1.0034078 (0.1405052)

RSV

The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 138 [95-percentile prediction interval: (114,165)]

The last estimated Rt value is 0.734297 (0.0534122)

SARS-CoV2

The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 44 [95-percentile prediction interval: (19,80)]

The last estimated Rt value is 0.9533717 (0.1309557)

PHRDW (pediatric population only)

Flu A

The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 1 [95-percentile prediction interval: (0,6)]

The last estimated Rt value is 0.3859038 (0.1286346)

Flu B

The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 4 [95-percentile prediction interval: (0,12)]

The last estimated Rt value is 0.3977284 (0.3977284)

RSV

The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 4 [95-percentile prediction interval: (1,8)]

The last estimated Rt value is 0.2956084 (0.0853348)

SARS-CoV2

The 1-week ahead forecast value is: 4 [95-percentile prediction interval: (0,25.025)]

The last estimated Rt value is 0.8529125 (0.6031002)

1-week ahead Model Forecast Validation

PLOVER

Flu A

Flu B

RSV

SARS-CoV2

PHRDW (pediatric population only)

Flu A

Flu B

RSV

SARS-CoV2

Forecast validation metrics

PLOVER

Flu A

The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 148.323954

Flu B

The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 38.0690011

RSV

The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 105.0823109

SARS-CoV2

The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 115.0000203

PHRDW (pediatric population only)

Flu A

The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 45.4153844

Flu B

The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 21.3975967

RSV

The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 40.4266686

SARS-CoV2

The Mean squared percentage error on the validation test is: 72.1003548